Publications

CEP report

Skills for growth: what the UK can learn from international approaches for incentivising employer-based training

This report reviews international evidence on approaches to increasing employer investment in training, focusing on three broad models: coordination between employers and training providers; sector-based employment and t...Read more

POID Working Paper

Measuring the prevalence and direction of Innovation: A pilot approach using LLMs

This paper pilots a method for measuring firms? product and process innovation at scale. Our approach uses LLMs to complete a detailed innovation survey for a sample of 600,000 companies operating across 40 countries. Th...Read more

POID Working Paper

A theory of endogenous degrowth and environmental sustainability

We develop and quantify a theory in which rising incomes and technological change redirect economic activity from material production toward intangible quality, generating an endogenous decline in emissions intensity. We...Read more

POID Working Paper

Geopolitics and Export Miracles: Firm-level evidence from U.S. ware procurement in Korea

How did geopolitics shape East Asia's economic development? We find that U.S. military procurement during the Vietnam War - a shock which peaked at nearly 3% of South Korean GDP, rivalling the Marshall Plan - catalyzed K...Read more

CEP occasional paper

UK national productivity trends: getting the data right - August 2026 update

We compare standard productivity estimates of UK output per worker derived from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) with newly released estimates based on more reliable "Real Time Information" (RTI) administrative data. LFS-ba...Read more

POID Working Paper

Defense Promotion and Industrial Development

Major economies are rearming, and rearmament is itself industrial policy. I ask whether defense promotion - especially innovation policy - can drive industrial development beyond the defense sector. I synthesize evidence...Read more

POID Working Paper

Industrial Policy in the Global Semiconductor Sector

The resurgence of subsidies and industrial policies has raised concerns about their potential inefficiency and alignment with multilateral principles. Critics warn that such policies may divert resources to less efficien...Read more

CEP discussion paper

Defense promotion and industrial development

Major economies are rearming, and rearmament is itself industrial policy. I ask whether defense promotion - especially innovation policy - can drive industrial development beyond the defense sector. I synthesize evidence...Read more

CEP discussion paper

Is data privacy a losing game? Evidence from Apple's App Tracking Transparency (ATT) policy

We study the impact of Apple's App Tracking Transparency (ATT) policy, which requires apps to obtain explicit user permission before cross-app tracking, on the mobile gaming industry. Using SensorTower US data on the top...Read more

Blog

Project Syndicate

Silicon, Not Software, Will Decide the AI Race

The AI race is no longer just about building better models. As competition shifts from scientific discovery to deployment, success increasingly depends on computing power, advanced semiconductors, physical infrastructure...Read more

Blog

The Economics Show with Soumaya Keynes (podcast)

Will AI solve the productivity puzzle? With Nick Bloom

Productivity has been a problem for the past 15 years. In developed countries, weak demand, a lack of competition and a paucity of new ideas have all been blamed. Could AI finally reverse that trend? Soumaya speaks to St...Read more

CEP discussion paper

The equilibrium impact of credit frictions: evidence from default risk using firm-level data

This paper examines the impact of credit frictions arising from firm-level default risk on aggregate economic performance. We build a micro-to-macro model with heterogeneous firms and sector-specific production functions...Read more

POID Working Paper

The Equilibrium Impact of Credit Frictions: Evidence from default risk using firm-level data

This paper examines the impact of credit frictions arising from firm-level default risk on aggregate economic performance. We build a micro-to-macro model with heterogeneous firms and sector-specific production functions...Read more

CEP occasional paper

UK national productivity trends: getting the data right

We compare standard productivity estimates of UK output per worker derived from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) with newly released estimates based on more reliable "Real Time Information" (RTI) administrative data. LFS-ba...Read more

Blog

Polytechnique Insights

Europe is falling behind, can it pick up the pace when it comes to innovation?

Philippe Aghion writes for Polytechnique Insights on how Europe must prepare its own AI strategy if it wishes to make up ground lost to the U.S. in terms of GDP per capita, productivity and disruptive innovations....Read more

Journal article

American Economic Review

Nobel lecture: The economics of creative destruction

The expression "creative destruction" was coined by Joseph Schumpeter to describe the process whereby new innovations displace old technologies. Schumpeter himself would acknowledge a filiation with Karl Marx, and more p...Read more

Blog

VoxEU

When trust in official statistics declines

Trust in official economic statistics has become an increasingly salient policy issue, including in the US where the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics was dismissed in August 2025 amid allegations that agenc...Read more

CentrePiece article

Informing industrial strategy for clean technologies

Spillovers from innovation can boost regional growth...Read more

Blog

VoxTalk (podcast)

Making Defence Spending Pay

Defence spending is rising whether voters like it or not. The UK has committed to 2.5% of national income and aims for nearer 3.5% over the next decade, GBP30bn a year for each percentage point. What does the country get...Read more

Blog

Working Knowledge - Harvard Business School

Want Workers to Reskill? Show Them Who They Can Become

New career in IT or construction? It's not easy to get workers to reskill because jobs for many people are more than a paycheck, says research by Raffaella Sadun....Read more